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Guinea analysis. Political environment |
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Political risks: 4.25
The political system in Guinea is under significant pressure. The transition from military government to
multiparty democracy, which began in 1991, is as yet incomplete and political authority remains almost
exclusively within the presidency, the military and the patronage networks that run between the two. At the
summit of the political system stands President Lansana Conté, in power since 1984. However, Conté's position
is also extremely precarious. He suffers from acute diabetes and heart trouble, and rumours persistently
circulate about his imminent death. He lacks an obvious successor and competition amongst his lieutenants is
intensifying. Meanwhile, the political opposition is becoming restless, anxious that it will be unable to assert its
role within Guinean politics unless it has some control over a managed succession. Recent calls from
parliamentarians for the army to seize power and establish a transitional administration are deeply worrying,
but are a clear sign of a political system in crisis. Conté has issued fervent warnings for his enemies to avoid
politicising the army in the run-up to the polls, scheduled for December 2003. His control over the coercive
apparatus of the state has tightened since reaching a military agreement with the US in 2001, but the
ever-present threat of instability in the border regions with Liberia and Sierra Leone may provide a pretext for
ambitious officers to listen carefully to the politicians' requests.
Current Highlights
- President Sacks Justice Minister to Defend Closest Ally: In April 2003, President Lansana Conté
sacked Justice Minister Abou Camara after the Minister threatened to arrest Central Bank Governor
Ibrahim Cherif Bah and Finance Minister Sheik Amadou Camara for misuse of funds. Although no decision
was given for the dismissal, it seems likely that Conté was shoring up support ahead of the December
2003 presidential election. The President trusts very few people in his government and the threatened
prosecution of the Central Bank Governor would have exposed one Conté's closest confidants - Deputy
Governor Fode Soumah - to similar treatment.
- Conté Announces Intention to Run for Another Term: Despite his failing health and persistent
rumours of a possible coup attempt against him, President Lansana Conté indicated his intention to run
for a further term in office in March 2003. In 2001, a controversial constitutional amendment removed the
two-term limit for Guinean presidents, enabling Conté to stand again this year. In his announcement, the
President conceded that he was suffering from acute diabetes, but warned his opponents that they should
not seek to politicise the army in the run-up to the election.
- Calls Intensify for the Military to Seize Power: Concerns about the political implications of President
Conté's ill health and economic mistakes have led to increasing calls from within the Guinean political
class for the military to seize power if the President should seek another term in elections tabled for 2003.
Rumours that Conté was in fact already dead were quashed in March 2003 when UK Minister for Africa
Baroness Valerie Amos visited the diabetic President at his home village.
- Legislative Elections Shrouded in Controversy: Despite substantiated allegations of rigging and
fraud, elections in June 2002 were upheld by the National Electoral Commission, without comment from
the international community. President Conté's PUP was returned to power with a substantial majority, as
was anticipated.
- President Wins Potential to Rule for Life: The results of a national referendum, which proposed
constitutional changes enabling President Lansana Conté to potentially stay in post for life, were
announced in November 2001. There were few surprised that the electorate supported the referendum as
it was widely accepted that the government would rig the result anyway. However, the government's
claims of a 82.7% turn-out and 98% show of support provoked some shock at the extent of the suspected
rigging.
- Refugees a Threat to Political Stability: An escalation of fighting in Liberia has increased the influx of
refugees. Guinea has a large refugee population, which can be a highly destabilising burden for such a
poor country.
Division of Power
- Presidency: Executive power resides with the president, who, after a suspect referendum in November
2001, now has the option to stay in office for life, subject to re-election. The president has extensive
powers under the Constitution of the Third Republic promulgated on 23 December 1991, including the
ability to appoint ministers. Selected by direct universal suffrage, an outright majority is needed to secure
the post of president, otherwise voting goes to a second round.
- Government: Guinea is a republic. The prime minister heads the government, though it is the president
who appoints the cabinet of ministers.
- Parliament: The unicameral legislature comprises the People's National Assembly (Assemblée Nationale
Populaire). This body has 114 members, 76 of which are elected by national party list vote and 38 by a
plurality vote.
- Regional Administration: Guinea is divided into 33 prefectures and one special zone - Conakry, the
capital.
Guinea is a west African republic with an emerging democracy. Achieving its
independence from France some
two years before its neighbours, in 1958, Guinea parted company from the former colonial power on very bad
terms. The president at independence, Ahmed Sekou Toure, remained in power until his death in 1984, which
was immediately followed by a bloodless military coup. The coup leader, Colonel Lansana Conté, is still in
power. It was some time (1989) before Conté made plans for the establishment of democratic rule. The
constitution of 1991 paved the way for a five-year transition from military government to multiparty
democracy. Several years after that programme was to have come to an end, democracy remains little more
than a facade.
Main Political Parties
Political parties were legalised in April 1992. The main parties are:
PUP: Party for Unity and Progress (Parti de l'Unite et du Progres)
RPG: Guinean People's Rally (Rassemblement du Peuple Guineen)
UPR: Party of Progress and Renewal (Union pour le Progres et le Renouveau)
UPG: Union for the Progress of Guinea (Union pour le Progres de la Guinee)
PDG: Democratic Party of Guinea (Parti Democratique de la Guinee)
Key Political Players
President, Minister of Defence and Leader of PUP |
General Lansana Conté came to power as the leader of a bloodless
military coup in 1984 and began the transition from military to
civilian ruler in 1989. However, change has been cosmetic rather
than a sincere establishment of democratic government. With no
obvious successor, speculation about a hotly contested takeover
grew in intensity as Conté's second constitutional term came to an
end. However, in 2001, Conté succeeded in his effort to alter the
constitution, withdrawing provisions for a two-term limit and making
the presidency available to any single candidate for life. Since then,
the focus has turned to Conté's poor health - he suffers from acute
diabetes and there are persistent rumours that he is already on his
death-bed. With presidential elections scheduled for 2003, Conté's
position is extremely precarious. His control over the state is
questionable and a military coup to prevent him standing for a third
term is not unthinkable. |
Prime Minister |
Lamine Sidime |
Minister for the Economy and Finance |
Cheikh Amadou Camara |
Leader of RPG |
Alpha Conde came third in presidential elections held in December 1998, after which he was picked up and detained by police. Conde
was charged with plotting to kill the President and threatening national security, but was subsequently released. |
Leader of PRP |
Mamadou Ba |
Leader of UPG |
Jean-Marie Dore is a former presidential candidate and leader of the opposition Union for the Progress of Guinea (UPG). In early-2003, Dore urged the Guinean armed forces to take power for a period of three to six months before the presidential election,
tabled for December 2003. Dore justified his invitation to the military on the basis of President Conté's poor health and 'economic
mistakes', which have brought the country to 'rock bottom'. |
Political Stability etc...
© 2003 World Markets Research Centre. All rights reserved. Important Notice
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