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Guinea. Economic analysisThe most important information for investor
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Guinea analysis. Political environment : Political stability |
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Political Stability Guinea became independent from France in 1958, after rejecting the offer to become part of the nascent Franco-African Community. The country quickly became isolated from both the international community and its immediate neighbours. Under the dictatorial leadership of Sékou Touré, the French quickly withdrew from Guinea and the administrative vacuum was replaced with a new Marxist system. For two decades, an atmosphere prevailed of paranoia, cooked-up coup attempts and internal repression. In April 1984, at the height of the Cold War, President Sékou Touré died and the army, led by Colonel Lansana
Conté, seized power. The interim military government - the National Committee for began to dismantle the
Marxist system and espouse policies that promoted the private sector and encouraged foreign investment. After
several years in power, the military administration began to reform and, by 1991, had incorporated civilian
representatives into a transitional government, the Transitional Committee for National Reform (Comité
Transitoire de Redressement National - CTRN). Under the transition programme, elections took place for the
presidency in 1993 and for the newly established legislature in 1995. Lansana Conté won the presidency, with
51.7% of the vote and his party, the Party for Unity and Progress (PUP), secured an overwhelming majority of
71 out of 114 seats in the People's National Assembly. The CTRN was dissolved following the elections. Guinea
experienced a setback to its political transformation in 1996, with an attempted military coup in the February.
The uprising lasted two days and was resolved after Conté agreed to address the soldiers' grievances. Since
then, Conté has taken up the portfolio for the minister of defence himself and remains an active general in the
national army.
Presidential Elections.
Even before they took place, the most recent presidential elections
triggered violence and looting in the capital, Conakry, as rival supporters clashed, and thugs - some wearing PUP T-shirts - 'campaigned' for
support. The rioting that ensued on the streets of the capital left at least six
people dead and about 100 injured. The army clamped down and tanks entered the city. The fighting also had a distinct ethnic element, as
political parties tend to mobilise around ethnic constituencies. In this
case, Peulh supporters of Mamadou Ba clashed with the Soussou
supporters of Conte. The day after the elections, Conte's main opponent,
Alpha Conde, was imprisoned whilst apparently trying to flee to neighbouring
Cote d'Ivoire - he has since been released.
The next scheduled presidential election is due to take place in December 2003.
Parliamentary Elections.
The most recent parliamentary elections took place in June 2002, two years behind schedule. Regional instability and border fighting had been
at the heart of the delays, according to the government. The results, when they finally came out, were once again denounced by the opposition parties as rigged. Indeed, there were no international observers or monitors in attendance for these elections which were
widely seen as flawed. Nonetheless, the results have stood and the ruling PUP, headed by Lansana Conte, has been returned to power with an increased majority. The opposition parties' decision to boycott the polls only increased the PUP's advantage.
Despite the technical achievements made towards democracy, Guinean politics is conducted in an atmosphere of acrimony. A spokesman for the RPG said prior to the second presidential elections, which were held in
December 1998, that 'the government has created the facade of democracy'. After the official results returned Lansana Conte to power, some 18 members of the High Council of Electoral Affairs resigned, describing the
elections as a 'parody'. Forthcoming ballots are unlikely to be any better received.
Outlook Guinea is threatened by instability emanating from problems in the neighbouring countries of Liberia, Guinea Bissau and, to a lesser extent after May 2002 presidential and parliamentary elections, Sierra Leone. When a rebellion by mutinous soldiers broke out in Guinea Bissau during June 1998, Guinea intervened alongside Senegal, later augmented by troops from the West African peace-keeping force, ECOMOG (Economic Community of West African States Ceasefire Monitoring Group). When anti-government rebel fighting broke out in northern Liberia in July 2000, Liberian President Charles Taylor looked to deflect blame and accused Guinea of backing the rebels. Guinea has staunchly denied any such involvement, although relations between the two countries can periodically turn sour. The threat to Guinea is wider than the risk of the fighting spilling across the border. More than 10,000 refugees have already fled across the border from Guinea Bissau. These are in addition to over half a million refugees sheltering in Guinea from the conflicts in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Guinea's enormous refugee population is an economic drain and creates internal social tensions with the local Guinean population. Although many Sierra Leonean refugees are returning home these days, an escalation in fighting in Liberia has seen a rise in Liberians seeking shelter in Guinea. With local elections and then legislative elections being denounced as shambolic and a with contentious referendum under his belt, President Conte is likely to face increasing pressure, both internally and externally, to take genuine steps towards establishing a working democracy in Guinea. A more transparent electoral process in June 2002 would have improved Guinea's international standing and allayed some of the dissatisfaction at home. However, though that did not happen, donors will not withdraw assistance or impose punitive measures on Guinea at this stage. The country is in a regionally important position. The international community has gone to great lengths to usher in peace in neighbouring Sierra Leone and so are prepared to make concessions in dealing with Guinea for the greater good of the region. Opposition parties will now muster for presidential polls in 2003. Poorly funded and poorly organised, the
elections are likely to focus on growing hostility towards President Conte and the controversial constitutional
revision that has allowed him to seek another term. Indeed, Conte's intractability on the issue of a democratic
transition may cause a rupture in the gradual transition towards multiparty politics. Since the end of 2002,
opposition politicians have called on the Guinean military to intervene if Conte looks to stand again. It is clear
that many within Guinean society and the political class would rather see a return to military rule than Conte
installed for another five years. Conte's health is also of concern and a source of instability - whilst it appears
that he is still alive, speculation about how long he will last threatens to dominate and upset political discourse
in the troubled West African state.
© 2003 World Markets Research Centre. All rights reserved. Important Notice
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